Friday, January 26

Not everyone loves the muscle-bound hunk

Who loves the Xbox360? A possibly daft question, I know, given the sales and success of Gears of War, and the anticipation for Halo 3. Nevertheless, I noticed a report on GamesIndustry.biz that Microsoft had cut their forecast for Xbox360 console sales for fiscal year 2007 from 13-15 million to 12 million.

Maybe it's because this is Friday, or because this is of no consequence (or maybe, just maybe, because most technology news sites are US-based, and so see the whole world through the distorting lens of the US market: viz the coverage of Apple's market-following, overpriced and underwhelming iPhone), but this announcement has generated very little coverage (caveat: at the time of this post) within the technology and gaming news sites.

However, I was immediately reminded of this aticle from Gamasutra last November, citing financial analysts worried about the high attach rate for the Xbox360. Now, normally a high attach rate is considered A Good Thing, but as the analysts cited in the article say,
We believe the unusually high attach rate on the 360 is a sign of an increasingly unhealthy console growth rate, and should be worrisome to publishers and investors.
They argue that the high attach rate at this stage in the console's lifespan is "a damning commentary on the limited hardware installed base, most of whom are hard-core gamers", and that without a big increase in the number of consoles sold, the Xbox360 would become a niche market device - popular with hardcore gamers, but with a very small footprint otherwise.

I've already posted that Sony and MS are overspecifying their consoles in order to position themselves for ownership of the living room; the clear implication appears to be that in so doing, they risk alienating the very no-gamer crowds they're appealing to - whilst meanwhile the little underpowered, Linux-based, open access Wii console is selling by the metric tonne. I can't even begin to unpack all the factors at work here - any list would have to include form factors, aesthetics, branding, price points, and market positioning before we even begin to address the Wii controller or the games selections - but I do think it's a trend that should not be overlooked.

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